Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition

  • When companies bid against one another to buy a target corporation, the hgiehst bidder frequently pays too much (1) – page xvii intro
  • Subjects had a choice between treatments… The stories made a huge difference and swamped the base rate data in the decision making process (2) – page 9 1
  • Those who imagined they were the auditor for the company were 30 percent more likely to find the choice compliant with accounting principles… conflicts of interest can occur without any conscious intentions for corruption (3) – page 34 2
  • A team of expert employees working at Best Buy was 95 percent accurate predicting sales… an amateur crowd was 99.1 percent accurate (4) – page 38 3
  • Forecasting formulas based off of winter rainfall, average growing season tempreature, and harvest rainfall have been shown to be remarkably accurate at predicting wine value (5) – page 39 3?
  • No relationship was found between NFL combine rankings and performance (6) – page 50 3
  • 80 percent of exectuvies wold fogo value creating investments to meet an earnings target (7) – page 77 5
  • Stars often fail to live up to expecations (8) – page 80 5?
  • A 75 percent correlation was found between butter production I Bangladesh and the S&P 500 index (9) – page 95 6?
  • Plan sponsors tended to hire managers who had performed well in the past… the number one reason to fire a manager was poor performance…  in subqequent years, many of the managers who were fired went on to outperform the new managers who were hired (10) – page 123 8
  • The first impression you have of a person or organization can determine your future degree of interaction (11) – page 135 8
  • Correlation between the beat variances in popualr songs and the S&P 500 index (12) – page 138 9
  • Weather forecasters tend to predict more accurately than financial analysts do due to the feedback (13) – page 140 9

References

  1. Anomalies the winner’s curse
  2. Physicians in health care managmeent the patient phsyician peternship decision making prboelm solving and the deire to praticiapte, UNderstanding patien’s decisionc conigitve and emotional perspectives
  3. Conflicts of interest and the case of auditor independence moral seduction and strategic issue cylcing
  4. The promise of prediction markets a roundtable
  5. Predicting the quality and prices of bordeaux wines
  6. The nfl combine does it predict perfomrance in the national football league
  7. Value destruction and financial reporting decisions
  8. Superstar CEOs
  9. Stupid data miner tricks overfitting the s&p 400
  10. The selection adn termination of investment management firms by plan sponsors
  11. Why most peopel disapprove of me experience sampling in mipression formation
  12. Music and the market songa nd stock market volatility
  13. Expert judgments financial anlaysts versus weather forecasters